Ever wonder how the polls worked? Here’s your answer

I’ve always been curious how these various polls came up with their statistics and information. So I decided to go straight to the source. Doug Schwartz is the Director of the Quinnipiac Polling Institute. The following is a Q & A session I had with him one week ago.

QU Decide: Doug, can you tell us a little bit about how the Quinnipiac Poll came into existence? Does the Quinnipiac Poll just deal with the tri-state area, or is it a national poll as well?

QU Decide: How does the poll actually work? Do you just go through the phone book and dial random numbers? And is there really any way to make the polling process as random as possible?

QU Decide: Doug, with every poll I ever see, there’s always this thing at the bottom called the “margin of error” with a plus or minus sign. What the heck is that??

QU Decide: Last December many of the pundits, Quinnipiac pollsters included, predicted this would be an election between Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney. How did they get this wrong, and why do you think it ended up being a race between Obama and McCain?

QU Decide: Based on where things sit right now (Oct. 10), who wins the election?

-JP

The final debate: McCain threw punches, but didn’t get a knockout

Tonight was the final opportunity for both candidates to make their cases to the American people. As I predicted earlier this afternoon, McCain came out on the offensive early and often, citing malicious Obama ads, as well as Obama’s connection with Bill Ayers and ACORN. But did it work?

Obama was often defending himself and his policies against McCain, but McCain stayed strong on his concept of reforming Washington. When moderator Bob Scheiffer spoke of reducing our reliance on foreign oil, McCain said that he believes we can eliminate our reliance on countries like Iraq and Venezuela for their oil in 10 years. Obama said he believes in offshore drilling, a concept he was initially against earlier in his campaign, but wants to focus on solar, wind, and geothermal sources of energy. He went on to say we need to hold Detroit accountable for making cars for the future.

On healthcare, both men outlined their plans, and then things then got testy, with both sides unleashing attacks. Obama said that McCain’s plan wont be covering the elderly, and that McCain will be taxing healthcare plans. McCain said that Obama’s plan forces small business owners to give employers healthcare, and if they don’t they will be fined. McCain made the point that he wants to take the government out of healthcare, and that Obama wants the government heavily involved.

The candidates also went back and forth on abortion and education. McCain continued to make strong points against Barack Obama, but Obama was able to hold his ground against McCain’s onslaught. But at the end of the debate, at least in this writer’s view, no ground had been gained nor given by either candidate.

-JP

Debate preview: Is tonight McCain’s last chance?

On the eve of this evening’s third and final presidential debate, Barack Obama has established a solid lead over John McCain in the national polls, as well as a lead in many swing states. Today’s Rasmussen poll shows Obama garnering 50 percent of the vote, compared to McCain’s 45 percent. Also, Obama is leading in every state John Kerry won in 2004, as well as four states which George Bush won.

All of these things taken into consideration, is tonight John McCain’s last chance to make a comeback?

It looks like the answer is yes. Many conservatives have been calling for McCain to attack Obama on his associations with Rev. Jeremiah Wright and William Ayers, but he has been somewhat reluctant. McCain has been struggling in the polls ever since the economy took a sharp downturn, and this will be his final opportunity to make a big impact on the American people on primetime television.

Watch for McCain to be on the attack tonight. The first two debates were fairly mundane, with both candidates simply stating their cases. Perhaps John McCain has been strategically holding off on Wright and Ayers attacks until the home stretch. Either way, this evening’s debate should be much more lively than the first two.

-JP

Bristol Palin’s husband-to-be talks about new baby, marriage

It’s safe to say that one year ago, Levi Johnston didn’t expect to be in the position he’s in now.

Since then his girlfriend has become pregnant, and his soon to be mother-in-law is a candidate for vice president.

The young teen has been quiet, but has finally spoken to the Associated Press in a rare interview. Johnston made it clear that he’s not being forced into a marriage with Bristol Palin.

“We both love each other. We both want to marry each other. And that’s what we’re going to do,” Johnston said.

Johnston went on to discuss his upcoming wedding with Bristol, as well as his how he felt about Sarah Palin’s chances at becoming VP.

“I just hope she wins…she’s my future mother-in-law. She better win,” Johnston said.

-JP

20 ways Obama agrees with Bush

Barack Obama has stated over and over in debates and rallies that if John McCain is elected president, it will be a third term of George Bush. But a recent CNN article by Tara Wall shows that Barack Obama actually agrees with George Bush a lot more than you may think.

In the article, Wall lists 20 reasons why Obama and Bush are so similar. If you don’t want to read through the article, here’s an abridged version.

• Abstinence – George Bush expanded abstinence-based education which includes teaching abstinence and contraception. Obama agreed with the move.

• Affirmative action – Bush says that diversity needs to be increased everywhere, including higher education, but what the University of Michigan did was wrong. Obama was quoted as saying he thinks we need to move away from affirmative action, and focus on economic class. In a debate against Hillary Clinton, Obama said his own daughters did not deserve affirmative action, and middle-class students of all colors do.

• Budgets – Obama voted for Bush budgets, including 19 spending bills.

• Capital punishment – Both Bush and Obama are in favor of capital punishment.

• Education – Both Bush and Obama support charter schools, merit pay for teachers, and in 2001Obama voted in favor of supporting Bush’s 21st Century Community Learning Centers.

• Gay marriage – Both Bush and Obama agree that marriage is between a man and a woman. In 2004, Obama said, “Gays…should not marry.” In 07, he expanded on that by saying that it should be handled by the states, but he personally believes marriage is between a man and a woman.

The rest of the topics can be viewed in the article. But I find it ironic that Obama spends alot of time attacking McCain for his similarities to George Bush, and yet Obama himself agreed with Bush on many issues.

-JP

Duh-duh-DUH! It’s Mighty McCain and the Obamanator!

Watch out Washington! Capitol Hill will never be the same…

Reuters is reporting that IDW, a San Diego-based publishing company, has released biographies of John McCain and Barack Obama…as comic book heroes. I guess they’re trying to appeal to the very young voters.

I wonder what their superpowers are…evading tough questions and spinning facts?

-JP

Opinion: Brokaw is a terrible moderator

Last night’s debate did little to reveal new information about either of the presidential candidates. But I did learn something about Tom Brokaw: He is not a good moderator.

Brokaw’s tone was similar to that of a high school senior at a party full of freshmen. His indifference was palpable, and there were points where I thought Brokaw wished he could have changed the channel (as I’m sure many Americans actually did).

One of the benefits of the town hall format is that questions come from regular Americans who ask questions all across the board, and aren’t afraid to speak their minds. But Brokaw managed to turn what could have been an exciting evening into a “bore-fest” by picking questions solely on policy. Most people came away from the debate having learned little. That’s because Brokaw asked nothing new.

The only intriguing question was the last one posed by Brokaw, which asked what the candidates didn’t know, and how they would hope to learn it. But it was the final question and it was presented as a throwaway. A serious answer was not given to what was a very serious question.

At the one point where Brokaw could have showed a spine, he crumbled like a bad parent would to his spoiled kid’s wishes. The rules determined by both candidates made it clear that neither candidate could give a rebuttal to any response. Yet after Barack Obama pleaded to make a point, Brokaw finally gave in and allowed him to say his piece.

This is not a situation Tom Brokaw wanted to be in. He was sent off into the sunset as one of our greatest news anchors. After Tim Russert’s passing, Brokaw has been thrust back in front of the camera to provide a smidge of objectivity at NBC. Didn’t want to be there last night, Tom? Trust me, we could tell.

-JP

New voting machines on election day for CT residents

If you go to the polls on Nov. 4 in Connecticut, you’ll have a brand new way to cast your vote.

Connecticut's new voting machines will hopefully eliminate indecision like we saw in the 2000 election with hanging chads.

According to Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz, the state will be implementing new voting machines that are “among the easiest and most secure available”. Essentially, voters will be given paper ballots on which they will fill in the oval which corresponds to their choice. After making a selection, the ballot is placed in a scanner, and your job as a voter is complete. For all of the specifics, click here.

This new voting machine seems quite similar to scantrons and standardized tests that high school and college students have become accustomed to. Yet somehow, I’m sure there will be a handful of voters that screw it up just as there are every four years when claims are made that the process is that much “easier”. At least we’ll avoid hanging chads. Perhaps they’ll be replaced by “semi-shaded ovals”?

EDIT: Luther Weeks at CTVotersCount.org posted in a comment that these machines are only “new” to those who haven’t voted since August of 2007. Thank you Luther for your input and clarification.

-JP

Obama surging in battleground states

Barack Obama's continued association of John McCain to George Bush has propelled him into a lead in the national polls.

A new Fox News/Rasmussen poll shows Barack Obama making considerable gains in battleground states such as Missouri, Colorado, and Missouri. Recent CNN polls also show Obama continuing to widen his lead over John McCain. Paul Steinhauser, CNN’s Deputy Political Director, reports that in their recent poll, Obama was eight percentage points ahead of McCain among likely voters, 53 to 45.

McCain had been leading in Missouri in mid-September. Now, Obama is up by three percent. In Colorado, there’s been a seven point swing in the last week that has lead to a six percent advantage for Obama.

The biggest change has come in the always exciting state of Florida. In two weeks, there has been a 12 point swing, from a five point lead for McCain, to a seven point lead for Obama.

There are many factors contributing to this. The recent economic crisis has certainly hurt McCain, and perhaps the honeymoon period between the public and Sarah Palin has worn down. Also, Obama may be finally striking a nerve with is continued comparisons of John McCain and George Bush. Right now, it appears it will be an uphill battle for John McCain.

-JP

New video: Political apathy at Quinnipiac

So I’ve been talking alot about the upcoming election and politics on the national front. But now I’m bringing it home for this post, examining the role politics plays here at my college. Recently, a report from the Princeton Review ranked Quinnipiac one of the most politically apathetic campuses. This news story delves into that.

-JP